Over the weekend, the Arizona Diamondbacks had a chance to trade punches with one of the best teams in the National League, but ended up losing the series 2-1 to the Braves after taking Game 1. Now, the 35-25 first place Diamondbacks are in DC for a three-game series with the 25-34 Washington Nationals. Washington also dropped two of three over the weekend.
Torey Lovullo will hand the ball to 3-1 Tommy Henry to start Game 1 and try to get Arizona back into the win column. Henry has a 3.73 ERA in seven starts this season. He will be opposed by Jake Irvin. The Nationals rookie is 1-3 in six starts with a 5.67 ERA.
Let's take a look at the odds for the first of three in DC.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals prediction and pick
This isn't the first time that the Nationals will face Henry who pitched against them on May 6, exactly one month ago. Henry went six strong allowing just two runs on six hits in that one and the Diamondbacks took an 8-7 win in the desert. The 25-year-old lefty had the best start of his career last time out going seven scoreless with just two hits, two walks, and a season high seven strikeouts. That was a rarity because Henry has an eighth percentile strikeout rate this year, just 5.5 per nine innings.
While Henry doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, he is 92nd percentile in chase rate this year which is good news against a Washington team that has a chase rate of 29.4% compared to the 28.2% league average. However, the Rockies, who Henry racked up those seven Ks against, had a 31% chase rate, so the Nationals might have more success.
Against lefties, the Nationals are also eighth in baseball with a .783 OPS this season. Lane Thomas has been particularly dominant with a .996 OPS and a team high four homers off of left-handers. Thomas also has a well below average chase rate, 24% which is 66th percentile.
Henry has a FIP of 5.21 which screams regression and I think it's going to come against the Nationals.
Follow all Josh Yourish's bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
